Peyton Manning is old but still Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning is 39, which is old by NFL standards, so just how effective can he be this season? Better than you think, according to the data.

No player in NFL history has made more Pro Bowl appearances than Peyton Manning. No player has thrown more touchdown passes than Manning. And, if Manning is able stay healthy in 2015, he'll likely pass Brett Favre for most career passing yardage.

His legacy as one of the NFL's greatest ever is unquestionable and, depending upon the value you place on Super Bowl rings in a sport with 22 different starting players per team, an argument could be made that Manning is the greatest.

But for the first time in a long, long time, Manning enters an NFL season as an afterthought to win the league's MVP award, an honor he's earned five times in his career -- most recently in 2013, when he racked up 55 touchdown passes for the Denver Broncos.

Much of that has to do with the way his 2014 season fizzled. He had several uncharacteristically subpar games to end the year, including a mediocre showing in the postseason against his former team, the Indianapolis Colts.

Now the Broncos are relying on the hope that Manning's slide was an anomaly and that Father Time isn't finally catching up with the No. 1 pick in the 1998 NFL Draft.

Looking for success at age 39

Everyone slows down, eventually.

Even Favre, the ageless wonder, followed up a ridiculous, Pro Bowl season at age 40 with a whimper at age 41, tossing just 11 touchdowns with 19 interceptions in his last NFL season.

But finding success at age 39, which Manning turned in March, isn't unprecedented. Only seven different players have started in eight or more games at the age of 39 or older, with Favre accomplishing the feat three times and Warren Moon four times. A few of them put together big years:

Player	Team	Year	Age	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	INT	YPA	Rate
Brett Favre	Vikings	2009	40	16	16	363	531	68.36	4,202	33	7	7.9	107.2
Warren Moon	Vikings	1995	39	16	16	377	606	62.21	4,228	33	14	7.0	91.5
Warren Moon	Vikings	1997	41	15	14	313	528	59.28	3,678	25	16	7.0	83.7
Jim Plunkett	Raiders	1986	39	10	8	133	252	52.78	1,986	14	9	7.9	82.5
Brett Favre	Jets	2008	39	16	16	343	522	65.71	3,472	22	22	6.7	81.0
Warren Moon	Seahawks	1998	42	10	10	145	258	56.20	1,632	11	8	6.3	76.6
Vinny Testaverde	Cowboys	2004	41	16	15	297	495	60.00	3,532	17	20	7.1	76.4
Doug Flutie	Chargers	2001	39	16	16	294	521	56.43	3,464	15	18	6.6	72.0
Brett Favre	Vikings	2010	41	13	13	217	358	60.61	2,509	11	19	7.0	69.9
Warren Moon	Vikings	1996	40	8	8	134	247	54.25	1,610	7	9	6.5	68.7
Len Dawson	Chiefs	1974	39	14	8	138	235	58.72	1,573	7	13	6.7	65.8
George Blanda	Oilers	1966	39	14	8	122	271	45.02	1,764	17	21	6.5	55.3
AVERAGE				13.7	12.3	239.7	402	59.62	2,804	17.7	14.7	7.0	80.3

At the end of the day, anything less than a season that puts Manning at or near the top of the chart with Favre and Moon would be a disappointment.

Manning has finished with a passer rating of 90 or higher in 11 straight seasons (ignoring the 2011 season that he didn't play in due to a neck injury). If he played to the average of a quarterback 39 or older, it would be his worst season since his rookie year.

Peyton's December slide

If Manning's slide at the end of the 2014 season is an indicator of the future, the end of his career could be sooner rather than later. While he usually finishes the regular season strong, he did anything but last year.

Manning's career by month:

Month	W	L	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	INT	Rate
September	38	15	1,226	1,889	64.90	15,211	115	47	99.6
October	42	16	1,382	2,062	67.02	16,325	132	50	102.2
November	47	22	1,680	2,626	63.98	18,882	145	79	91.2
December	49	21	1,562	2,350	66.47	18,549	134	56	99.4

Manning's 2014 by month:

Month	W	L	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	INT	Rate
September	2	1	74	111	66.67	814	8	1	108.5
October	4	0	100	141	70.92	1,320	14	2	127.4
November	3	2	144	224	64.29	1,603	14	6	95.1
December	3	1	77	121	63.64	990	3	6	76.8

A rating of 76.8 in a month is a rarity for Manning. While he posted a 76.9 rating in November 2010, that is the only other month that Manning finished with a rating under 90 since 2008.

It wasn't helped by the fact that Manning completed just 26 of 46 passes in the postseason loss to the Colts that dropped his career playoffs record to 11-13. Losses in the postseason are something that will always haunt Manning's legacy and even though another loss in 2014 wasn't a revelation, rarely has he been so statistically poor.

He sports an 88.5 career passer rating in the playoffs and finished the postseason with a rating of 88 or higher in nine of the 10 seasons prior to 2014, with the sole exception being a 70.5 showing in 2006 that was forgiven with the only Super Bowl win of Manning's career. So a 75.5 passer rating in a loss to the Colts didn't do much to dissuade the thought that the end could be near for Manning.

★★★

How good is good enough for the Broncos to stay on top of the AFC West? After dominant showings and 38 regular season wins in his first three seasons in Denver, it's probably unfair to expect Manning to throw more than 50 touchdowns in a season ever again.

But he probably doesn't have to. A year of good health combined with his smarts, adaptability and an offense more committed to running the ball could still propel Manning to a solid season at the age of 39. Look at how Football Outsiders' 2015 prediction for Manning compares with his 2014 season, career numbers and averages for quarterbacks 39 and older:

The Broncos boast one of the NFL's best defenses and, barring a significant drop-off in play, should still be able to score plenty of points thanks to Manning.

Source: Adam Stites http://ift.tt/1WfFGrm

Ranking: 5