This past week I have been involved in two diametrically opposed activities. I have been conjuring up projections for the coming college basketball season for RotoWire, while reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, part of which echoes Nicholas Nathan Taleb’s The Black Swan in that experts shouldn’t be trusted. I guess I am an expert who knows better than to trust himself. My method of projection is to look at last year’s number and based on expected minutes adjust accordingly. It isn’t a breakthrough in mathematics or forecasting, but it gets the job done. As the college basketball season approaches, I thought I’d take a quick peak at tournament projections from past Athlon and Blue Ribbon college basketball annuals. By the way, Athlon is on shelves now and there are even a number of preview articles by some joker named Fox (David, in this case). I am always happy to see it. By the way, Athlon has Kentucky, Duke, Maryland, and North Carolina in its Final Four this year.
I am not really a collector but for some reason (maybe just for this column), I have been holding onto my Athlon previews back to 2007-08 and Blue Ribbon back to 2008-09 (although I don’t have 2010-11 because I figured ESPN Insider had me covered. I am still with Blue Ribbon, but quit Insider last year and have not regretted it.) I enjoy both of these publications, so my looking at past projections is not to demean them. I just want to show that even the best experts have little idea of how the future is going to unfold. In order to keep things simple, I am just going to look at projected and actual Final Fours. Let’s start in 2007-08 when D.J. White, Drew Neitzel, and Shaun Pruitt graced the Athlon cover.
2007-08
Actual Final Four (champion listed first, runner-up second, and other semifinalists third and fourth): Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
Athlon Final Four: UCLA, North Carolina, Georgetown, Memphis
Sweet job by Mitchell Light and company! They nailed three of the four teams, but missed out on the champion. They did have Kansas in the Elite Eight, so things went pretty much with the chalk. Georgetown was a two-seed in the 2008 tournament, but was ousted in the Round of 32 by Stephen Curry and Davidson.
2008-09
Actual Final Four: North Carolina, Michigan State, Connecticut, Villanova
Athlon: North Carolina, Connecticut, UCLA, Louisville
Blue Ribbon: North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, UCLA (top four rated teams in preseason)
Nailed it! Maybe I was wrong to question the experts, but North Carolina led by Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson was a preseason favorite that year and went wire-to-wire. Athlon missed out on Michigan State and Villanova, but had both teams in the Sweet 16. UCLA was a six seed. The Bruins were elimated by Villanova in the Round of 32. Louisville was a top seed and made it to the Elite Eight where they were knocked out by Michigan State. Blue Ribbon had the Spartans at 13, Connecticut at five, and Villanova at 22. Like Louisville, Pittsburgh was a top seed and was knocked out by Nova in the Elite Eight. The Fighting Irish had Luke Harangody, but finished just ninth in the Big East and did not make the NCAA tournament. They did make it to the NIT Final Four, but were beaten by Penn State.
2009-10
Actual Final Four: Duke, Butler, West Virginia, Michigan State
Athlon: Kansas, Michigan State, Purdue, Texas
Blue Ribbon: Kansas, Michigan State, Texas, Villanova
At least Athlon and Blue Ribbon agreed, but they only hit on one of the Final Four teams. The Spartans were knocked out by upstart Butler who used crazy defense and Gordon Hayward to advance to their first of two consecutive finals. Kansas had a successful regular season, but were Faroukmaneshed in the Round of 32 by Northern Iowa (which may have been the first shot in the Jayhawks vs. Missouri Valley battle). Texas had a great non-conference before Big 12 reality hit. The Longhorns did not lose until Jan. 16, then were beaten in every game of consequence after that. They fell to an eight-seed and were beaten by Wake Forest in the first round. Purdue had Robbie Hummel and finished second in the Big 10, but were ousted by Duke in the Sweet 16. Villanova also had a nice two-seed, but were beaten by St. Mary’s with Omar Samhan and freshman Matthew Dellavedova in the Round of 32. Athlon had Butler as a three-seed, while Blue Ribbon had the Bulldogs at 11. West Virginia was also a three-seed in Athlon, while Blue Ribbon had them right at 12. The eventual champions, who had Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Mason Plumlee, were a five-seed in Athlon and rated nine in Blue Ribbon. Not too shabby.
2010-11
Actual Final Four: Connecticut, Butler, Kentucky, VCU
Athlon: Duke, Purdue, Kansas, Michigan State
Woops! It was bound to happen, but Athlon put up an ohfer in 2011. They had the Kemba Walker-led Huskies as a first round casualty. Butler was a five-seed, so that put them on pace to win one tournament game. Kentucky had a weird season with Enes Kanter sitting out. The team did have Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight, and most importantly Josh Harrellson. They were a four-seed in Athlon. VCU went from First to Final Four. They were rated as the third-best team in the Colonial by Athlon, but were missing Larry Sanders. Maybe they weren’t missing him. As for the teams that Athlon picked, Duke was a one-seed, but was beaten by Arizona in the Sweet 16. Purdue was a three-seed, but knocked out by the Rams in the Round of 32. Kansas was also knocked out by VCU in the Elite Eight. Michigan State just didn’t have it in 2011. They were a 10-seed that was knocked out by UCLA in the first round.
2011-12
Actual Final Four: Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville, Ohio State
Athlon: North Carolina, Kentucky, Connecticut, Ohio State
Blue Ribbon: North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio State, Syracuse
This was the year that the Kentucky freshmen altered college basketball forever. Or maybe not. No one doubted the Wildcats’ talent, but could coach John Calipari get Anthony Davis and his friends to play together. He could and he did. They beat North Carolina in the regular season in a memorable game in which Davis blocked John Henson’s shot. Athlon had Kansas as a four-seed, while Blue Ribbon put them at 11. Louisville was a two-seed in Athlon and at 13 in Blue Ribbon. The Tar Heels held up quite well and were a one-seed in the tournament, but bowed out in the Elite Eight against Kansas. The post-Kemba Huskies were just 8-10 in the Big East and crashed out of the tournament in the first round as a nine seed against Royce White’s Iowa State. Like North Carolina, Syracuse was a one-seed that advanced to the Elite Eight before getting knocked out by Ohio State and Jared Sullinger.
2012-13
Actual Final Four: Louisville, Michigan, Syracuse, Wichita State
Athlon: Indiana, Louisville, Kansas, Kentucky
Blue Ribbon: Indiana, Louisville, Kentucky, North Carolina State
Much like the 2011-12 Tar Heels, Indiana was installed as the favorite based on returning talent, including Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo. Indiana had a very nice season, but they lost to Butler in the non-conference, then dropped home games against Wisconsin and Ohio State in the regular season. Like many teams, the Hoosiers couldn’t solve the Syracuse zone and were knocked out in the Sweet 16 as a one-seed. Kansas was also a one-seed, but lost to Michigan in the Sweet 16. Kentucky lost Nerlens Noel during the regular season and never recovered. The team was knocked out of the NIT in the first round by Robert Morris in the only failed year of Calipari’s run at Kentucky. North Carolina State was also highly touted, but was felled in the first round of the Big Dance by Temple. Michigan was not far out of the annuals rankings: the Wolverines were fifth in Blue Ribbon and an Elite Eight team in Athlon. Syracuse was also an Elite Eight team in Athlon and 14th in Blue Ribbon. The Shockers were the surprise team of the tournament. They were the third-rated team in the Valley by Blue Ribbon and an 11-seed by Athlon. They were a nine-seed in the actual tournament.
2013-14
Actual Final Four: Connecticut, Kentucky, Florida, Wisconsin
Sporting News: Kentucky, Michigan State, Louisville, Duke
I apparently took a stand against annuals two years ago and only bought Sporting News. How strange. Mike DeCourcy and friends hit on Kentucky, but missed out on the rest of the Final Four. Michigan State was a four-seed that advanced to the Elite Eight before being beaten by the Huskies. Louisville was also a four-seed, whose Sweet 16 game I live-blogged. They won that ugly game, but were beaten by Kentucky in the next round. Duke was a three-seed, but was upset by Mercer in the first round. Sporting News had Connecticut as the 22nd team, Florida at 12, and Wisconsin at 14.
2014-15
Actual Final Four: Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Michigan State
Athlon: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, Arizona
Blue Ribbon: Kentucky, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina
The season belonged to Kentucky which rumbled to an undefeated regular season record. I was once again on the live blog and was able to record the Wildcats’ lone loss for Hoops Manifesto history. When Kentucky has some returning players, they are awfully hard to beat. In other words, the 2015-16 season may be a down year in Lexington. The eventual champion, Duke, was fifth in Blue Ribbon. When in doubt, go with Duke or Kentucky. Blue Ribbon had the Spartans at 20 and they were a four-seed in Athlon. For the second straight season, Arizona was thwarted by the Badgers in the Elite Eight. Wisconsin also beat North Carolina in the Elite Eight.
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