Bielema's Arkansas breakthrough already happened. The hard part's building on it.

Don't let the record fool you. The Hogs were close to elite last year. Can they improve in a few key areas against a brutal schedule?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Sometimes the wins come last

There's almost always a name that stands out in the advanced stats.

• In 2005, Michigan went 7-5 but ranked sixth in the F/+ ratings, ahead of 10-3 Georgia and 11-2 LSU.
• In 2006, 7-5 South Carolina ranked 16th, sandwiched by 10- and 11-win teams.
• In 2007, 9-4 Florida ranked third, behind West Virginia and national champion LSU.
• In 2008, 9-4 Iowa ranked ahead of Big 12 North champ Missouri.
• In 2009, 8-5 Oklahoma ranked ninth, ahead of 14-0 Boise State and six others with double-digit wins.
• In 2010, 9-5 South Carolina ranked ninth, ahead of 12-1 Oregon and six with at least 11 wins.
• In 2011, 8-5 Notre Dame and 7-6 Texas A&M ranked ahead of 16 teams with double-digit wins.
• In 2012, 8-6 Wisconsin and 8-5 Oklahoma State ranked ahead of 24 teams with at least nine wins.
• In 2013, 8-5 Georgia ranked ahead of two 12-1 teams.

TL;DR

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Projected S&P+ ranking: 12

5-year recruiting ranking: 33

Biggest strength: Nobody has a clearer offensive identity, or more wherewithal to stick to it.

Biggest question mark: A thin defense has to replace quite a bit (and its three best play-makers) in the front seven.

Biggest 2015 game: Beat Tennessee in Knoxville (Oct. 3), and the Hogs will be perceived as a severe threat heading into a murderous stretch of four potential top-10 opponents in five games.

In one sentence: Despite close losses, Arkansas now has the identity, athleticism, and pure beef to take on what might be the toughest post-September schedule in the country.

There has been hell to catch for some of these ratings. But in the following seasons for these 11 teams, seven finished in the F/+ top six, nine won at least 10 games, and 10 improved their win totals. (The outlier: 2007 South Carolina, which went 6-6 and finished 32nd. Steve Spurrier's always got to be different.)

Since you're reading an Arkansas preview, the reason I bring this up should be obvious. Last year's F/+ ratings produced a handful of odd results; Ole Miss' collapse from No. 1 through two months to barely-top-50 thereafter made their No. 5 finish odd, and Auburn's collapse made their No. 7 finish eye-catching.

But the strangest team sits at ninth. Arkansas went 7-6 and finished ahead of No. 10 Baylor, No. 11 Michigan State, No. 12 UCLA, and No. 15 Florida State, among others.

We'll get into the how and why. For now, consider this a warning. Bret Bielema's almost got his pieces in order. Sometimes the wins come after the breakthrough, but make no mistake: Arkansas broke through last fall. After a frustrating 2013 that saw Bielema's Hogs go 3-9 and finish 78th, they mastered the art of a pummeling ground game and took immense steps forward on defense. And while a four-win improvement is impressive, Arkansas was so close to more, going 0-4 in one-possession finishes.

So the Hogs are winning 10-plus games this year, right? Well ... we'll see. I'm not worried about the offense, which returns nearly everybody. The UA offense was basically a set of 11 wheat threshers, and that should be the case again. But the defense has questions after losing its top two linemen, three of five linebackers, and three of seven defensive backs. Plus, sometimes when a team makes an enormous surge, it regresses toward the mean.

Oh yeah, and the schedule is incredible. They play three road games against projected top-10 teams and drew Tennessee and Missouri from the SEC East. That makes 10-plus wins a longshot. But Arkansas was awesome and should be very good again.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 9
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	at Auburn	7	21-45	L	44%	-3.3	4%
6-Sep	Nicholls State	N/A	73-7	W	100%	68.9	100%
13-Sep	at Texas Tech	82	49-28	W	88%	26.9	95%
20-Sep	Northern Illinois	69	52-14	W	97%	44.8	99%
27-Sep	vs. Texas A&M	42	28-35	L	55%	3.1	15%
11-Oct	Alabama	2	13-14	L	74%	15.2	16%
18-Oct	Georgia	4	32-45	L	37%	-7.5	0%
25-Oct	UAB	79	45-17	W	99%	51.3	100%
1-Nov	at Mississippi State	13	10-17	L	71%	13.1	22%
15-Nov	LSU	22	17-0	W	99%	60.0	100%
22-Nov	Western Carolina	N/A	30-0	W	99%	58.3	100%
28-Nov	at Missouri	20	14-21	L	79%	18.6	61%
29-Dec	vs. Texas	53	31-7	W	96%	41.9	100%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	38.7	15	15.6	6
Points Per Game	31.9	45	19.2	10

2. Spectacular six times

In some ways, advanced stats measure how frequently you were awesome. Our eyes remember certain games more than others, but the stats see everything.

And in college football, that's important. Even while seeing everything, you only get 12 to 15 opportunities to judge a team. When our eyes boil things down to a few specific games, drives, or plays, we're setting ourselves up to be awfully inaccurate.

Here's what our stats saw from Arkansas last year. They were magnificent -- 95th percentile or better (top-five-caliber) -- in six of 13 games. Only three teams hit that mark more: Ohio State, Oregon, and Ole Miss.

Games at 95th percentile or better
8	Ohio State, Oregon
7	Ole Miss
6	Arkansas, Georgia
5	Alabama, Michigan State, Oklahoma, UCLA
4	Auburn, Boise State, Georgia Tech, LSU, Miami, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Wisconsin
3	Baylor, Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Texas A&M, USC
2	Florida, Kansas State, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, TCU, Texas, UTEP

If you're looking at last year's F/+ rankings and zeroing in on teams that seem to grade higher than you anticipated -- No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 7 Auburn, No. 9 Arkansas, No. 19 Oklahoma -- this clues you in. Some of these had poor performances, but when they were good, they were top-notch.

And since precedent is everything, since the best way to predict who might look good is by who has looked good, voila: Arkansas finished as a top-10 team last year.

The Hogs also finished strong.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 7 games): 71% (~top 35 | record: 3-4)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 6 games): 91% (~top 12 | record: 4-2)

This says wonderful things about Arkansas' prospects ... at least until you look at the schedule.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.86	60	IsoPPP+	121.1	26
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.8%	48	Succ. Rt. +	115.0	22
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.7	22	Def. FP+	104.0	26
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	58	Redzone S&P+	119.0	20
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.8		ACTUAL	17	-5.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	63	25	22	26
RUSHING	26	22	42	13
PASSING	102	28	17	41
Standard Downs		33	32	39
Passing Downs		8	7	12

Q1 Rk	3	1st Down Rk	28
Q2 Rk	12	2nd Down Rk	12
Q3 Rk	60	3rd Down Rk	68
Q4 Rk	82

3. Practicing what you preach

Arkansas fan HQ

Arkansas Razorbacks blog Arkansas Fight

Bielema has emerged as the biggest critic of the hurry-up, no-huddle style of offense. And while Nick Saban has shown signs of hopping on the tempo bandwagon, Bielema has done no such thing.

Arkansas' tempo ranked 116th in FBS last year. The only power-conference offenses that moved more slowly: Kansas State, Oregon State, Stanford, Michigan, and Vanderbilt.

The head hog has no interest in spreading defenses out, either. With five running backs weighing 215-plus pounds, seven linemen going 325-plus, countless tight ends, and something called a "fullback," Bielema leans on power as much as anybody. Among power-conference teams last year, only LSU allowed fewer solo tackles than Arkansas.

Bielema is clear in his vision of what an offense should look like, and in Jim Chaney, he found a man willing to create most of it. Chaney's off to Pitt, however, and we'll see if new coordinator Dan Enos makes significant changes. Doubtful.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brandon Allen	6'2, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8766	190	339	2285	20	5	56.0%	12	3.4%	6.3
Austin Allen	6'1, 210	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8950	8	16	153	0	1	50.0%	2	11.1%	7.8
Rafe Peavey	6'2, 204	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8844
Ty Storey	6'2, 215	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9088

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jonathan Williams	RB	6'0, 223	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9248	211	1190	12	5.6	4.8	44.5%	5	1
Alex Collins	RB	5'11, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9795	204	1100	12	5.4	5.2	42.2%	6	4
Kody Walker	FB	6'2, 256	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	31	149	1	4.8	1.6	48.4%	1	1
Brandon Allen	QB	6'3, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8766	30	91	2	3.0	4.8	26.7%	7	2
Korliss Marshall	RB					26	119	1	4.6	3.8	38.5%	1	0
Denzell Evans	RB	5'11, 222	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8297	7	36	0	5.1	2.7	42.9%	0	0
Jared Cornelius	WR	5'11, 202	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441	7	26	0	3.7	2.3	28.6%	1	0
Damon Mitchell	WR	6'2, 207	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8333	6	58	0	9.7	4.5	83.3%	0	0
Keon Hatcher	WR	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9017	5	112	1	22.4	20.8	80.0%	0	0
Austin Allen	QB	6'1, 210	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8950	5	17	1	3.4	1.1	40.0%	1	1
Juan Day	RB	6'1, 206	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8528
Rawleigh Williams III	RB	5'10, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8659

4. Still room for improvement

Identity is a powerful thing. It can get everybody on the same page. It can spell out how you plan to earn yards and points. It paints a picture of how you intend to lean on strengths and mask weaknesses.

To say the least, Arkansas had an identity. The Razorbacks ran nearly three-quarters of the time on standard downs, playing at a sumo pace, and looking for numbers advantages that were more of the five-on-four kind than two-on-one. They had two big backs, Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, who produced 32 carries and 176 yards per game, and only two players (receiver Keon Hatcher and tight end Hunter Henry) were targeted more than three times per game.

Arkansas knew what it was, and that worked to its advantage. That doesn't mean there weren't weaknesses.

Arkansas didn't close well. This style should be expected to wear opponents down, but it didn't. Arkansas ranked third in Q1 S&P+ and 12th in Q2, but only 60th in Q3 and 82nd in Q4. Third downs were their worst downs, and they averaged only 4.5 points per scoring opportunity.

Predictability was an issue, and opponents were able to adapt over the course of 60 minutes. If Enos can make any single positive change, perhaps expanding the game plan and incorporating more diversity in the first 45 minutes would make Arkansas more effective late.

Another weakness: fumbles. Of the 44 FBS backs with at least 200 carries, only Appalachian State's Marcus Cox had more fumbles per carry than Collins, and only Cox, Collins, Western Michigan's Jarvion Franklin, and USF's Marlon Mack had more than Williams. A late Collins fumble contributed to the loss to Missouri, and even with Brandon Allen throwing only five interceptions, turnovers let opponents off the hook a few times.

One last area for improvement: big pass plays. When you've got this identity, you should have chances at play-action bombs. But only 16 of Allen's 190 completions gained 25-plus yards, and only six came on first down, a prime play-action situation. Of Arkansas' top five wide receivers, only one (Drew Morgan) averaged more than 13 yards per catch, which is odd for an offense with such play-action potential.

Because of Chaney's adaptability, he is one of my favorite coordinators. But there are areas where Enos can make the Hogs better. A few more big strikes -- to Hatcher, other returnees, or a newcomer like JoJo Robinson or Dominique Reed -- would make this offense nearly impossible to stop.

Because Arkansas' backs are nimble and its linemen are excellent at screening defenders with their massive size, opposing teams have to be concerned when the QB feints a draw handoff. The result is safeties and deep defenders getting drawn to the backfield at the last minute, allowing receivers such as Hatcher space downfield when it's most valuable.

(Quick note for Enos: no more fade passes on two-point conversions, please. Even with Hunter Henry.)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Keon Hatcher	WR	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9017	78	43	558	55.1%	22.5%	44.9%	7.2	22	7.4	80.6
Hunter Henry	TE	6'5, 253	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9622	63	37	505	58.7%	18.2%	50.8%	8.0	50	7.7	73.0
Demetrius Wilson	WR					37	17	220	45.9%	10.7%	43.2%	5.9	-1	5.9	31.8
AJ Derby	TE					34	22	303	64.7%	9.8%	52.9%	8.9	37	8.8	43.8
Jared Cornelius	WR	5'11, 202	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441	31	19	240	61.3%	9.0%	41.9%	7.7	8	8.2	34.7
Cody Hollister	WR	6'4, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8069	25	13	137	52.0%	7.2%	48.0%	5.5	-27	5.4	19.8
Drew Morgan	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7891	16	10	181	62.5%	4.6%	56.3%	11.3	59	11.5	26.2
Jonathan Williams	RB	6'0, 223	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9248	16	11	65	68.8%	4.6%	62.5%	4.1	-66	4.1	9.4
Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	6'6, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8677	10	7	84	70.0%	2.9%	50.0%	8.4	1	8.0	12.1
Kendrick Edwards	WR	6'5, 212	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8458	10	4	70	40.0%	2.9%	70.0%	7.0	16	7.4	10.1
Korliss Marshall	RB					6	6	37	100.0%	1.7%	50.0%	6.2	-31	6.4	5.4
Kody Walker	FB	6'2, 256	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	6	3	15	50.0%	1.7%	83.3%	2.5	-23	1.7	2.2
Eric Hawkins	WR	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8422
JoJo Robinson	WR	5'11, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9000
Dominique Reed	WR	6'3, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8635
Jovante Siglar	WR	6'2, 180	Jr.	NR	NR
CJ O'Grady	TE	6'4, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9172
Will Gragg	TE	6'4, 255	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9160

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	106.1	3.05	3.65	43.2%	70.0%	19.4%	150.8	4.6%	3.7%
Rank	46	52	34	25	42	69	17	65	9

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Brey Cook	RT					30
Dan Skipper	LT	6'10, 331	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	21
Mitch Smothers	C	6'3, 322	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9304	21
Denver Kirkland	RG	6'5, 340	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9324	21
Sebastian Tretola	LG	6'5, 334	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8660	11
Luke Charpentier	LG					3
Austin Beck	RG	6'7, 325	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8619	0
Marcus Danenhauer	OG	6'4, 312	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8482	0
Reeve Koehler	OG	6'3, 331	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8881	0
Frank Ragnow	RG	6'5, 312	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8913	0
Brian Wallace	OT	6'6, 317	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9574
Josh Allen	OL	6'2, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722
Jalen Merrick	OL	6'4, 339	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9057
Zach Rogers	OL	6'1, 310	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8863
Colton Jackson	OL	6'6, 303	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8637

5. 6'6, 327

There are six juniors and seniors among Arkansas' returning linemen above. They average 6'6, 327. This does not include 331-pound sophomore Reeve Koehler or 339-pound freshman Jalen Merrick. In terms of beefiness, Arkansas' offense is in the 99th percentile.

It should be noted that Arkansas' line stats really weren't all that good. The relationship between line stats and overall offensive stats is a tenuous one -- just because Arkansas ranked 22nd in Rushing S&P+ but only 46th in Adj. Line Yards doesn't mean that the line was holding the Hogs back -- but for a team with a power identity and the meatiest of lines, you would expect better. And you would expect something more than a mediocre stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line).

Arkansas' line didn't quite get the push you would have expected, even adjusting for opponent. Perhaps experience will help: the Hogs now return four players with at least 11 career starts (74 total). There wasn't a ton of continuity up front heading into 2014. That's not an issue now.

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Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.80	36	IsoPPP+	122.2	18
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.5%	58	Succ. Rt. +	117.6	17
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.7	20	Off. FP+	109.2	6
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	17	Redzone S&P+	128.4	5
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.4		ACTUAL	24.0	-2.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	10	18	17	18
RUSHING	12	11	19	9
PASSING	37	26	25	31
Standard Downs		15	25	13
Passing Downs		28	13	42

Q1 Rk	5	1st Down Rk	20
Q2 Rk	31	2nd Down Rk	14
Q3 Rk	5	3rd Down Rk	14
Q4 Rk	51

6. A hell of a coordinator hire

Arkansas' most famous coach, Frank Broyles, was one of those old-schoolers who decided that the offense's main job was to get out of the way of the defense.

Football in the 1960s featured far less polish, but still, from 1959 to 1966, Broyles' Razorbacks allowed under 10 points per game six times. The undefeated 1964 squad that one a share of the national title scored more than 21 points just three times in 11 games but allowed only 5.8 points per contest. After beating Texas, 14-13, they outscored their final six opponents by a margin of 126-7.

What must Broyles have thought about the last decade of Arkansas football? Since 2006, Arkansas has ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 15 four times and in the top 30 six times. The defense peaked at 16th in Def. S&P+ in 2006 and ranked outside of the top 50 four times.

Wow, did things come together last year. Bielema hired Robb Smith as his new coordinator, a talented set of upperclassmen gelled, and Arkansas improved from 78th to sixth. The Greg Schiano disciple led Rutgers' defense to a No. 13 ranking in 2012 before spending a season with Schiano in Tampa Bay.

Like the offense, the defense experienced diminishing returns as a game progressed. The Hogs were fifth in the first and third quarters but only 31st in the second and 51st in the fourth. And while the run defense was fantastic (70th in Rushing S&P+ in 2013, 11th in 2014), the pass defense was only good. Still, Smith's defense went from weakness to strength over the course of a single offseason.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	128.5	2.61	2.70	38.4%	61.8%	24.9%	106.8	3.0%	7.6%
Rank	5	27	23	56	34	9	53	105	62

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trey Flowers	DE					13	51.0	8.0%	15.5	6.0	0	6	1	0
Darius Philon	DT					13	35.5	5.6%	11.5	4.5	0	2	1	2
JaMichael Winston	DE	6'4, 262	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8596	13	20.5	3.2%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Taiwan Johnson	DT	6'2, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8980	13	20.5	3.2%	8.0	4.5	0	0	0	0
Mitchell Loewen	DE	6'5, 275	Sr.	NR	NR	9	9.5	1.5%	2.0	0.5	0	2	0	0
Deatrich Wise Jr.	DE	6'5, 272	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8785	10	9.0	1.4%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Tevin Beanum	DE	6'4, 280	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8206	12	7.5	1.2%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Bijhon Jackson	NG	6'2, 325	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9622	13	6.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Brandon Lewis	DT	6'4, 279	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8450	11	4.5	0.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
DeMarcus Hodge	NG	6'1, 340	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640	12	3.5	0.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Karl Roesler	DE	6'1, 255	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cordale Boyd	NG	6'3, 282	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8640
Anthony Brown	DE	6'3, 270	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7901
Armon Watts	DT	6'5, 304	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535
Jeremiah Ledbetter	DL	6'3, 280	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8919
Hjalte Froholdt	DT	6'4, 299	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9339
Jamario Bell	DE	6'5, 253	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9100
Daytrieon Dean	DT	6'3, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8547

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Martrell Spaight	MLB					13	95.5	15.0%	10.5	1.0	1	3	2	0
Brooks Ellis	WLB	6'2, 242	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8682	11	50.5	8.0%	5.5	0.5	2	5	2	0
Josh Williams	SLB	6'1, 237	Jr.	NR	NR	13	19.0	3.0%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Braylon Mitchell	MLB					13	16.5	2.6%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Daunte Carr	LB					11	8.5	1.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Khalia Hackett	MLB	6'2, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8358	11	8.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Randy Ramsey	SLB					7	6.5	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dwayne Eugene	WLB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8244	13	3.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tiquention Coleman	LB					3	3.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Josh Harris	LB	5'10, 220	RSFr.	NR	NR
Dre Greenlaw	LB	6'0, 222	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8522

SB Nation College Football

7. Questions to answer in the front seven

Fading over the course of a half suggests that there might be depth issues. Needless to say, lopping off half of the two-deep in the front seven is not a good way to improve depth.

Arkansas will take the field without end Trey Flowers, tackle Darius Philon, linebacker Martrell Spaight, and four of the other eight linebackers who made at least 3.5 tackles. Flowers, Philon, and Spaight were by far the best play-makers in the front seven, so both depth and star power could be obstacles.

All is obviously not lost. Tackle Taiwan Johnson is a potential star, eight returning linemen made at least one play behind the line of scrimmage, and up to three new four-star signees could join the rotation: JUCO play-maker Jeremiah Ledbetter, freshman tackle Hjalte Froholdt, and freshman end Jamario Bell.

At linebacker, a lot is riding on the progress of sophomore Khalia Hackett, who will be succeeding Spaight in the middle. Brooks Ellis is a nice play-maker, and Josh Williams saw time in the rotation, but Spaight was a hell of a defensive quarterback, and Hackett, a nice special teams contributor, faces pressure. If he doesn't work out, I'm not sure who else might be a candidate.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alan Turner	FS					13	48.0	7.6%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Jared Collins	CB	5'11, 172	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432	13	46.0	7.2%	4	1	0	13	1	0
Rohan Gaines	SS	5'11, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8138	12	44.0	6.9%	1	0	1	5	1	0
D.J. Dean	CB	5'11, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8249	13	17.0	2.7%	0	0	2	5	0	0
Tevin Mitchel	CB					11	16.5	2.6%	1	0	2	8	0	0
Henre' Toliver	NB	6'1, 186	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700	11	14.5	2.3%	1	1	2	1	0	0
Carroll Washington	CB					12	13.5	2.1%	1	0	1	1	0	0
De'Andre Coley	SS	6'1, 202	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8163	11	9.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Liddell	FS	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8341	12	8.0	1.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kevin Richardson	CB	6'0, 175	So.	NR	NR	13	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cornelius Floyd	CB	5'11, 172	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392	9	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Davyon McKinney	SS	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Matt Dodson	CB	5'10, 202	So.	NR	NR
Santos Ramirez	FS	6'2, 202	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8482
Nate Dalton	DB	6'3, 197	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8449

8. Shore up the big pass plays

The run defense might regress in 2015, but the pass defense could improve. Of the 11 defensive backs who made at least four tackles, five were freshmen, and two were sophomores.

Leading safeties Alan Turner and Rohan Gaines were a senior and junior, but it stands to reason that, with the overall youth, big plays would be an issue. The Hogs allowed only 33 passes of 20-plus yards (24th in the country), but 12 of those 33 went 40-plus (94th). The discipline was fine, but the breakdowns were breakdowns.

Gaines returns, as do aggressive junior corners Jared Collins and D.J. Dean (combined: four TFLs, two INTs, 18 PBUs). Sophomore Henre' Toliver is a potential star at nickelback. There is speed to burn, and perhaps improvement in the back can offset regression in the front.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sam Irwin-HIll			58	40.1	2	24	27	87.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Adam McFain	6'0, 197	Jr.	45	60.3	10	2	22.2%
Sam Irwin-HIll			18	61.9	6	1	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
John Henson			31-33	2-2	100.0%	0-2	0.0%
Adam McFain	6'0, 197	Jr.	20-20	6-8	75.0%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Korliss Marshall	KR			9	30.1	1
Keon Hatcher	KR	6'2, 210	Sr.	6	23.2	0
D.J. Dean	PR	5'11, 202	Jr.	11	11.0	0
Jared Cornelius	PR	5'11, 202	So.	9	10.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	87
Field Goal Efficiency	118
Punt Return Efficiency	116
Kick Return Efficiency	24
Punt Efficiency	3
Kickoff Efficiency	110
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	18

9. Special teams will make a big difference in the West

Sam Irwin-Hill was an underrated weapon, a fair catch machine who allowed only 49 yards' worth of returns in 58 punts. His 40.1-yard average wasn't special, but his net yardage and consistency were.

That Irwin-Hill was part of a special teams unit that ranked 87th overall tells you all you need to know. Korliss Marshall was a good kick returner, but Arkansas ranked 110th or worse in kickoff efficiency, punt returns, and place-kicking. And now Irwin-Hill and Marshall are gone. Yikes.

There is potential. Adam McFain showed a strong leg on field goal attempts, even while missing two shorter kicks, and D.J. Dean did average 11 yards per return, even if 63 of his 121 return yards came on a single jaunt. Still, when special teams is a weakness, and you lose your two strengths, that doesn't tend to work out.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	UTEP	99
12-Sep	vs. Toledo	69
19-Sep	Texas Tech	53
26-Sep	vs. Texas A&M	22
3-Oct	at Tennessee	20
10-Oct	at Alabama	1
24-Oct	Auburn	5
31-Oct	UT-Martin	NR
7-Nov	at Ole Miss	6
14-Nov	at LSU	8
21-Nov	Mississippi State	21
27-Nov	Missouri	23

Five-Year F/+ Rk	23.9% (25)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	28 / 33
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	7 / 3.7
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (9, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.1 (-1.1)

10. You better be good on the road

Arkansas was frequently awesome, but there's clear room for growth. The passing game needs to get a little bit more vertical to de-clog the box. The offensive line needs to play as big as it is. The front seven has to find a few new pieces to fill out a two-deep. The secondary needs to cut down on big plays. Special teams needs to be a little bit more special.

But even with some of the issues, the Razorbacks were capable of spectacular highs in 2014. Unfortunately for the 2015 Hogs, most of those highs were at home. Of Arkansas' six elite performances last year, five were at home and one was on a neutral field.

The baseline road performance was still solid, but Arkansas will have to be more than solid on the road. The slate includes trips to Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU, top-25 teams in both projections and preseason polls. Combine that with a neutral-site battle against Texas A&M, and you've got a schedule that isn't friendly to ideas of 10-win seasons.

In this year's Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 (the college portion of which is available via $6 PDF), Arkansas is projected a conservative 21st -- 12th in S&P+ but 28th in FEI -- in part because of the suddenness of last year's success. And at 21st, the Razorbacks are given only an 18 percent chance of finishing 9-3 or better and a 29 percent chance of finishing 6-6 or worse. This division is brutal.

I think more highly of Arkansas than those projections, but it's hard to picture the Hogs topping out higher than 9-3. That's the bad news. The good news: Arkansas won a combined seven games in 2012-13. An 8-4 campaign would be another definitive step forward.

Source: Bill Connelly http://ift.tt/1ICL2pF

Ranking: 5